Global Economic Prospects, June 2012
The year began on a positive note. A marked improvement in market sentiment, combined with monetary policy easing in developing countries, was reflected in a rebound in economic activity in both developing and advanced countries. Industrial production, trade and capital goods sales all returned to p...
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| Formato: | Online |
| Idioma: | en_US |
| Publicado em: |
Washington, DC
2013
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| Acesso em linha: | https://hdl.handle.net/10986/12106 |
| _version_ | 1866366985744416768 |
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| author | World Bank |
| author_facet | World Bank |
| author_sort | World Bank |
| collection | Publicaciones institucionales emblemáticas |
| description | The year began on a positive note. A marked improvement in market sentiment, combined with monetary policy easing in developing countries, was reflected in a rebound in economic activity in both developing and advanced countries. Industrial production, trade and capital goods sales all returned to positive territory, following the slow growth of the fourth quarter of 2011. Although debt levels in developing countries are lower, several countries (notably Jordan, India, and Pakistan) must reduce their structural fiscal balances to reduce debt to 40 percent of Gross domestic Product (GDP) by 2020 (or prevent debt-to-GDP ratios from rising further). As a result, sharp swings in investor sentiment and financial conditions will continue to complicate the conduct of macroeconomic policy in developing countries. In these conditions, policy in developing countries needs to be less reactive to short-term changes in external conditions, and more responsive to medium-term domestic considerations. A return to more neutral macroeconomic policies would also help developing countries reduce their vulnerabilities to external shocks, by rebuilding fiscal space, reducing short-term debt exposures and recreating the kinds of buffers that allowed them to react so resiliently to the 2008/09 crisis. |
| format | Online |
| id | wb-10986-12096 |
| institution | Banco Mundial |
| language | en_US |
| publishDate | 2013 |
| publisher | Washington, DC |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | wb-10986-120962025-12-18T19:06:15Z Global Economic Prospects, June 2012 Perspectivas económicas mundiales: gestionar el crecimiento en un mundo volátil - Resumen ejecutivo (Vol. 1) Perspectives de l’économie mondiale : Gestion de la croissance dans un environnement volatil - Résumé Perspectives de l'economie mondiale : gestion de la croissance dans un environnement volatil Perspectivas economicas mundiales : gestionar el crecimiento en un mundo volatil Perspectives de l'economie mondiale : gestion de la croissance dans un environnement volatil Perspectivas economicas mundiales : gestionar el crecimiento en un mundo volatil Managing Growth in a Volatile World World Bank accounting arbitrage assets bailout bank lending Bank Loans banking systems basis points binding constraint bond bond issuance Bond Issues bond spreads Bond Yields bonds borrowing costs budget constraint buffers business confidence capacity constraints capital constraints capital goods capital inflows capital markets Capital outflows capital requirements capitalization CDS central bank Commodities commodity commodity markets commodity price commodity prices commodity traders consumer demand consumer goods consumer spending Copyright Clearance Copyright Clearance Center country capital country debt country Equity Credit Default Credit Default Swap credit squeeze credit squeezes crisis countries Current account balance current account balances current account deficit current account deficits debt Debt data debt flows debt levels debt obligations debt restructuring debt stocks debts decline in investment deposits developing countries developing country Developing country Equity developing economies developing economy domestic markets downside scenario durable durables Economic developments Emerging Markets Emerging-market Equities equity issuance Equity Issues Equity market Equity markets exchange rate Exchange Rates expenditure expenditures export growth export value Interest Rates exporter exporters exposures external shocks financial crises financial crisis financial institutions financial integration financial market financial markets financial sector financial sector developments financial sectors financial systems financing requirements fiscal consolidation fiscal deficits fiscal policies fiscal policy food price food prices foreign banks foreign currency Global Economy global finance global financial markets global financial systems global output global trade Government account government accounts Government budget government debt government deficit government deficits government expenditure government expenditures government revenue government revenues government spending Gross debt growth rate growth rates High-Income Countries high-income country household savings human capital import import demand Income income growth incomes Inflation inflation rates inflationary pressures interest rates International Bank international business International capital International capital flows international financial institutions international financial markets international reserves International Settlements International Trade investing investment activity investment spending lenders level of risk loan local currency low-income countries macroeconomic policies macroeconomic policy Macroeconomic vulnerabilities market conditions market price market prices Market regulators maturity middle-income countries Monetary Fund monetary policies monetary policy natural disasters Net capital oil commodities oil price oil prices Output Output Gap output gaps political stability political uncertainty Portfolio portfolio capital post-crisis period power parity private banks Private creditors Private debt private inflows public spending purchasing power purchasing power parity rate of growth real interest real interest rates Regional trade regulators remittances reserve return risk assessments risk aversion savings savings rate short-term debt small countries sovereign debt stock markets sustainable growth technological change trade deficit trade finance trading transition countries Treasury Treasury Yields value index volatile capital volatility weights withdrawal world economy World Trade The year began on a positive note. A marked improvement in market sentiment, combined with monetary policy easing in developing countries, was reflected in a rebound in economic activity in both developing and advanced countries. Industrial production, trade and capital goods sales all returned to positive territory, following the slow growth of the fourth quarter of 2011. Although debt levels in developing countries are lower, several countries (notably Jordan, India, and Pakistan) must reduce their structural fiscal balances to reduce debt to 40 percent of Gross domestic Product (GDP) by 2020 (or prevent debt-to-GDP ratios from rising further). As a result, sharp swings in investor sentiment and financial conditions will continue to complicate the conduct of macroeconomic policy in developing countries. In these conditions, policy in developing countries needs to be less reactive to short-term changes in external conditions, and more responsive to medium-term domestic considerations. A return to more neutral macroeconomic policies would also help developing countries reduce their vulnerabilities to external shocks, by rebuilding fiscal space, reducing short-term debt exposures and recreating the kinds of buffers that allowed them to react so resiliently to the 2008/09 crisis. El comienzo de 2012 fue positivo. La percepción de los mercados mejoró notablemente y los países en desarrollo moderaron su política monetaria, lo que se reflejó en un repunte de la actividad económica en general. Tanto la producción industrial como el comercio y la venta de bienes de capital consiguieron resultados positivos, saliendo así del letargo del último trimestre de 2011. Una vez más, los países en desarrollo lideraron la recuperación y ayudaron a la zona del euro a alcanzar un crecimiento marginalmente positivo en los primeros tres meses del año. A pesar de ello, el agotamiento de la capacidad puede convertirse en una limitación grave para las principales economías en desarrollo. Las proyecciones indican que el crecimiento se ralentizará en 2012 pero luego comenzará a repuntar lentamente. Si bien el desenlace más probable será la disminución de las tensiones en la economía mundial, todavía no es posible descartar que las condiciones se deterioren aún más. Si esto ocurre, las economías en desarrollo no lograrán recuperarse tan rápidamente como lo hicieron en 2008-09. En caso de crisis, todos los países en desarrollo se verán afectados. Esto significa que volver a políticas macroeconómicas más neutrales podría servir para reducir su vulnerabilidad ante golpes externos, ya que contribuye a recuperar espacio fiscal, reducir la exposición de la deuda a corto plazo y reactivar las medidas de amortiguación que les permitieron sortear la crisis de 2008-09. Cette note résume les perspectives de l’économie mondiale telles qu’entrevues en juin 2012. Du point de vue de ce document, l’année 2012 a commencé sur une note favorable. Le sentiment du marché s’est nettement amélioré, et la politique monétaire s’est assouplie dans les pays en développement, le tout conduisant à une reprise de l'activité économique tant dans les pays développés que dans les pays en développement. La production industrielle, le commerce, et la vente des biens d’équipement se sont tous améliorés suite au ralentissement de la croissance au quatrième trimestre de 2011. Les pays en développement conduisent encore la reprise, en tirant la zone euro vers une croissance de PIB légèrement positive au premier trimestre. Toutefois, depuis le début du mois de mai, une grande partie de ce progrès a été remise en cause avec la réapparition des turbulences de la zone euro qui ont troublé les marchés financiers dans le monde entier. Même en l'absence d'une véritable crise, les déficits budgétaires et les dettes élevés des pays à haut revenu, ainsi que leurs politiques monétaires trop souples, indiquent que dans un avenir prévisible, l'environnement externe pour les économies en développement est susceptible de rester caractérisé par des flux de capitaux volatils et une incertitude accrue des investisseurs. Par conséquent, les fortes variations de l'humeur des investisseurs et les conditions financières continueront à compliquer la mise en œuvre de la politique macroéconomique dans les pays en développement. 2013-01-04T20:56:36Z 2013-01-04T20:56:36Z 2012-06 https://hdl.handle.net/10986/12106 10.1596/12096 en_US CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank application/pdf text/plain application/pdf application/pdf text/plain application/pdf text/plain Washington, DC |
| spellingShingle | accounting arbitrage assets bailout bank lending Bank Loans banking systems basis points binding constraint bond bond issuance Bond Issues bond spreads Bond Yields bonds borrowing costs budget constraint buffers business confidence capacity constraints capital constraints capital goods capital inflows capital markets Capital outflows capital requirements capitalization CDS central bank Commodities commodity commodity markets commodity price commodity prices commodity traders consumer demand consumer goods consumer spending Copyright Clearance Copyright Clearance Center country capital country debt country Equity Credit Default Credit Default Swap credit squeeze credit squeezes crisis countries Current account balance current account balances current account deficit current account deficits debt Debt data debt flows debt levels debt obligations debt restructuring debt stocks debts decline in investment deposits developing countries developing country Developing country Equity developing economies developing economy domestic markets downside scenario durable durables Economic developments Emerging Markets Emerging-market Equities equity issuance Equity Issues Equity market Equity markets exchange rate Exchange Rates expenditure expenditures export growth export value Interest Rates exporter exporters exposures external shocks financial crises financial crisis financial institutions financial integration financial market financial markets financial sector financial sector developments financial sectors financial systems financing requirements fiscal consolidation fiscal deficits fiscal policies fiscal policy food price food prices foreign banks foreign currency Global Economy global finance global financial markets global financial systems global output global trade Government account government accounts Government budget government debt government deficit government deficits government expenditure government expenditures government revenue government revenues government spending Gross debt growth rate growth rates High-Income Countries high-income country household savings human capital import import demand Income income growth incomes Inflation inflation rates inflationary pressures interest rates International Bank international business International capital International capital flows international financial institutions international financial markets international reserves International Settlements International Trade investing investment activity investment spending lenders level of risk loan local currency low-income countries macroeconomic policies macroeconomic policy Macroeconomic vulnerabilities market conditions market price market prices Market regulators maturity middle-income countries Monetary Fund monetary policies monetary policy natural disasters Net capital oil commodities oil price oil prices Output Output Gap output gaps political stability political uncertainty Portfolio portfolio capital post-crisis period power parity private banks Private creditors Private debt private inflows public spending purchasing power purchasing power parity rate of growth real interest real interest rates Regional trade regulators remittances reserve return risk assessments risk aversion savings savings rate short-term debt small countries sovereign debt stock markets sustainable growth technological change trade deficit trade finance trading transition countries Treasury Treasury Yields value index volatile capital volatility weights withdrawal world economy World Trade World Bank Global Economic Prospects, June 2012 |
| title | Global Economic Prospects, June 2012 |
| title_full | Global Economic Prospects, June 2012 |
| title_fullStr | Global Economic Prospects, June 2012 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global Economic Prospects, June 2012 |
| title_short | Global Economic Prospects, June 2012 |
| title_sort | global economic prospects june 2012 |
| topic | accounting arbitrage assets bailout bank lending Bank Loans banking systems basis points binding constraint bond bond issuance Bond Issues bond spreads Bond Yields bonds borrowing costs budget constraint buffers business confidence capacity constraints capital constraints capital goods capital inflows capital markets Capital outflows capital requirements capitalization CDS central bank Commodities commodity commodity markets commodity price commodity prices commodity traders consumer demand consumer goods consumer spending Copyright Clearance Copyright Clearance Center country capital country debt country Equity Credit Default Credit Default Swap credit squeeze credit squeezes crisis countries Current account balance current account balances current account deficit current account deficits debt Debt data debt flows debt levels debt obligations debt restructuring debt stocks debts decline in investment deposits developing countries developing country Developing country Equity developing economies developing economy domestic markets downside scenario durable durables Economic developments Emerging Markets Emerging-market Equities equity issuance Equity Issues Equity market Equity markets exchange rate Exchange Rates expenditure expenditures export growth export value Interest Rates exporter exporters exposures external shocks financial crises financial crisis financial institutions financial integration financial market financial markets financial sector financial sector developments financial sectors financial systems financing requirements fiscal consolidation fiscal deficits fiscal policies fiscal policy food price food prices foreign banks foreign currency Global Economy global finance global financial markets global financial systems global output global trade Government account government accounts Government budget government debt government deficit government deficits government expenditure government expenditures government revenue government revenues government spending Gross debt growth rate growth rates High-Income Countries high-income country household savings human capital import import demand Income income growth incomes Inflation inflation rates inflationary pressures interest rates International Bank international business International capital International capital flows international financial institutions international financial markets international reserves International Settlements International Trade investing investment activity investment spending lenders level of risk loan local currency low-income countries macroeconomic policies macroeconomic policy Macroeconomic vulnerabilities market conditions market price market prices Market regulators maturity middle-income countries Monetary Fund monetary policies monetary policy natural disasters Net capital oil commodities oil price oil prices Output Output Gap output gaps political stability political uncertainty Portfolio portfolio capital post-crisis period power parity private banks Private creditors Private debt private inflows public spending purchasing power purchasing power parity rate of growth real interest real interest rates Regional trade regulators remittances reserve return risk assessments risk aversion savings savings rate short-term debt small countries sovereign debt stock markets sustainable growth technological change trade deficit trade finance trading transition countries Treasury Treasury Yields value index volatile capital volatility weights withdrawal world economy World Trade |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10986/12106 |
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