Global Economic Prospects, June 2011
The global financial crisis is no longer the major force dictating the pace of economic activity in developing countries. The majorities of developing countries has, or are close to having regained full-capacity activity levels. As a result, country-specific productivity and sartorial factors are no...
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| Formato: | Online |
| Idioma: | en_US |
| Publicado em: |
2013
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| Acesso em linha: | https://hdl.handle.net/10986/12103 |
| _version_ | 1866366986798235648 |
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| author | World Bank |
| author_facet | World Bank |
| author_sort | World Bank |
| collection | Publicaciones institucionales emblemáticas |
| description | The global financial crisis is no longer the major force dictating the pace of economic activity in developing countries. The majorities of developing countries has, or are close to having regained full-capacity activity levels. As a result, country-specific productivity and sartorial factors are now the dominant factors underpinning growth. Macroeconomic policy in developing countries needs to turn toward medium-term productivity enhancements, managing inflationary pressures re-establishing the fiscal and monetary cushions that allowed most developing countries to come through the crisis so well. In contrast, activity in high income and some developing European countries continues to struggle with crisis-related problems, including banking-sector, fiscal and household restructuring. The remainder of this report is organized as follows. The next section discusses recent developments in global production, trade, inflation, and financial markets, and presents updates of the World Bank's forecast for the global economy and developing countries. This is followed by a more detailed discussion of some of the risks and tensions in the current environment, and a short section of concluding remarks. Several annexes address regional and sartorial issues in much greater detail. |
| format | Online |
| id | wb-10986-12098 |
| institution | Banco Mundial |
| language | en_US |
| publishDate | 2013 |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | wb-10986-120982025-12-18T19:14:42Z Global Economic Prospects, June 2011 Perspectivas económicas mundiales junio de 2011 : mantener los advances en medio de la inestabilidad (Vol. 3) Perspectives économiques mondiales, Juin 2011 : Une reprise sur fond de perturbations Perspectives economique mondiale : une reprise sur fond de perturbations Perspectivas economicas mundiales : mantener los advances en deen medio de la inestabilidad Perspectives economique mondiale : une reprise sur fond de perturbations Perspectivas economicas mundiales : mantener los advances en deen medio de la inestabilidad Maintaining Progress Amid Turmoil World Bank absolute value acceleration of inflation adjustment costs adverse effects aggregate demand asset price asset values balance sheet balance sheets bank loan bank loans banking sector basis points bond Bond issuance bond markets Bonds business investment capacity constraints capital adequacy capital inflows capital investments capital markets capital outflows central banks Commodities commodity commodity price Commodity Prices competitiveness consumer demand consumer price index consumer spending consumption basket Copyright Clearance Copyright Clearance Center core inflation corporate bond cost of capital credibility Current account Current account balance current account balances current account imbalances current account surpluses debt debt financing depreciation developing countries Developing country developing economies developingcountry dollar value domestic credit domestic demand domestic demand growth domestic inflation domestic markets domestic prices drag on growth economic developments economic disruption emerging economies emerging market emerging markets energy exports equilibrium price equity flows exchange rate Exchange rate appreciation exchange rate flexibility export value Interest Rates export volumes exporters exposures financial crisis Financial flows financial markets financial sector financing arrangements fiscal consolidation fiscal deficit fiscal deficits fiscal policies fiscal policy flexible exchange rate flexible exchange rate regimes food price food prices food production foreign capital foreign currency foreign currency debt foreign direct investment future prices global demand Global Economy Global imbalances global inflation global output government bond government budget government deficits gross debt growth rate growth rates high-income countries import import growth imports income income growth incomes inflation measures inflation rate inflation rates inflation targets inflationary expectations inflationary pressures infrastructure projects institutional investors interest rate interest rates International capital International capital flows international markets international price International prices international reserve International Trade investment goods investment spending labor market labor markets local currency long-run equilibrium long-term interest rates Macroeconomic policy market conditions market developments market pressures market price market prices middle-income countries monetary authority monetary policy mortgage narrow band natural disaster nominal interest rates oil commodities oil demand oil exporters oil exporting countries oil importers oil markets oil price oil prices oil supply output output gap output gaps outturns political turmoil pollution portfolio power parities power parity price hikes price increase price increases price indexes price indices price of oil private capital private capital flows private inflows purchasing power purchasing power parities purchasing power parity rapid expansion rate of growth real effective exchange rate recession Regional growth regulatory conditions remittance remittances reserve accumulation rise in inflation risk premium sales growth savings short-term debt shortfall shortfalls slowdown sovereign debt spare capacity strong capital inflows Strong demand supply conditions supply disruptions supply shocks tax technological change trade impacts transition countries Treasury uncertainty unemployment rate upward pressure upward pressures value index volatility weights world prices World Trade The global financial crisis is no longer the major force dictating the pace of economic activity in developing countries. The majorities of developing countries has, or are close to having regained full-capacity activity levels. As a result, country-specific productivity and sartorial factors are now the dominant factors underpinning growth. Macroeconomic policy in developing countries needs to turn toward medium-term productivity enhancements, managing inflationary pressures re-establishing the fiscal and monetary cushions that allowed most developing countries to come through the crisis so well. In contrast, activity in high income and some developing European countries continues to struggle with crisis-related problems, including banking-sector, fiscal and household restructuring. The remainder of this report is organized as follows. The next section discusses recent developments in global production, trade, inflation, and financial markets, and presents updates of the World Bank's forecast for the global economy and developing countries. This is followed by a more detailed discussion of some of the risks and tensions in the current environment, and a short section of concluding remarks. Several annexes address regional and sartorial issues in much greater detail. La crisis financiera mundial ya no es la principal fuerza que dicta el ritmo de la actividad económica en los países en desarrollo. Los factores que impulsan el crecimiento hoy en día son la productividad específica y aspectos sectoriales de cada país. Las políticas macroeconómicas aplicadas en estos países deben volcarse ahora hacia mejoras de la productividad a mediano plazo, administrando las presiones inflacionarias y restableciendo los amortiguadores fiscales y monetarios que permitieron a la mayoría de ellos salir tan bien de la crisis. Según las proyecciones, el crecimiento mundial seguirá siendo alto en el período 2011-13. En este informe se analizan los recientes acontecimientos en materia de producción, comercio, inflación y mercados financieros mundiales. También se presentan proyecciones actualizadas del Banco Mundial sobre la economía mundial y los países en desarrollo. Luego, sigue un análisis más detallado de algunos de los riesgos y tensiones presentes en la coyuntura actual y una breve sección con comentarios finales. Varios anexos abordan temas regionales y sectoriales de modo más detallado. La crise financière mondiale n’est plus la force principale imprimant le rythme de l’activité économique dans les pays en développement. La politique macro-économique des pays en développement devrait désormais s’orienter sur la recherche d’améliorations de productivité à moyen terme, la maîtrise des pressions inflationnistes et la reconstitution des matelas fiscaux et monétaires qui ont permis à la plupart des pays en développement de passer dans d’aussi bonnes conditions au travers de la crise. La croissance vigoureuse de la demande intérieure des pays en développement a soutenu la production dans les pays à haut revenu mais a mis en relief les contraintes de capacité sur certains marchés intérieurs et sur les marchés mondiaux de l’énergie et des métaux. Tant la politique monétaire que la politique fiscale dans les pays en développement vont devoir être resserrées rapidement pour limiter ces pressions. Bien qu’une croissance vigoureuse sous l’impulsion des pays en développement soit l’hypothèse la plus probable pour l’avenir, les prix élevés des denrées alimentaires, d’autres pics du prix du pétrole, des difficultés prolongées post-crise dans les pays à haut revenu engendrent des risques de ralentissement. Une nouvelle hausse des cours des produits alimentaires et du carburant ne peut pas être exclue. Les craintes concernant la viabilité budgétaire des pays à revenu élevé persistent. D’autres contraintes peuvent émerger sur le plan financier, à mesure que la politique monétaire dans des pays à haut revenu commence à se resserrer. 2013-01-04T20:53:20Z 2013-01-04T20:53:20Z 2011-06 https://hdl.handle.net/10986/12103 10.1596/12098 en_US CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank application/pdf text/plain application/pdf application/pdf application/pdf application/pdf text/plain application/pdf text/plain |
| spellingShingle | absolute value acceleration of inflation adjustment costs adverse effects aggregate demand asset price asset values balance sheet balance sheets bank loan bank loans banking sector basis points bond Bond issuance bond markets Bonds business investment capacity constraints capital adequacy capital inflows capital investments capital markets capital outflows central banks Commodities commodity commodity price Commodity Prices competitiveness consumer demand consumer price index consumer spending consumption basket Copyright Clearance Copyright Clearance Center core inflation corporate bond cost of capital credibility Current account Current account balance current account balances current account imbalances current account surpluses debt debt financing depreciation developing countries Developing country developing economies developingcountry dollar value domestic credit domestic demand domestic demand growth domestic inflation domestic markets domestic prices drag on growth economic developments economic disruption emerging economies emerging market emerging markets energy exports equilibrium price equity flows exchange rate Exchange rate appreciation exchange rate flexibility export value Interest Rates export volumes exporters exposures financial crisis Financial flows financial markets financial sector financing arrangements fiscal consolidation fiscal deficit fiscal deficits fiscal policies fiscal policy flexible exchange rate flexible exchange rate regimes food price food prices food production foreign capital foreign currency foreign currency debt foreign direct investment future prices global demand Global Economy Global imbalances global inflation global output government bond government budget government deficits gross debt growth rate growth rates high-income countries import import growth imports income income growth incomes inflation measures inflation rate inflation rates inflation targets inflationary expectations inflationary pressures infrastructure projects institutional investors interest rate interest rates International capital International capital flows international markets international price International prices international reserve International Trade investment goods investment spending labor market labor markets local currency long-run equilibrium long-term interest rates Macroeconomic policy market conditions market developments market pressures market price market prices middle-income countries monetary authority monetary policy mortgage narrow band natural disaster nominal interest rates oil commodities oil demand oil exporters oil exporting countries oil importers oil markets oil price oil prices oil supply output output gap output gaps outturns political turmoil pollution portfolio power parities power parity price hikes price increase price increases price indexes price indices price of oil private capital private capital flows private inflows purchasing power purchasing power parities purchasing power parity rapid expansion rate of growth real effective exchange rate recession Regional growth regulatory conditions remittance remittances reserve accumulation rise in inflation risk premium sales growth savings short-term debt shortfall shortfalls slowdown sovereign debt spare capacity strong capital inflows Strong demand supply conditions supply disruptions supply shocks tax technological change trade impacts transition countries Treasury uncertainty unemployment rate upward pressure upward pressures value index volatility weights world prices World Trade World Bank Global Economic Prospects, June 2011 |
| title | Global Economic Prospects, June 2011 |
| title_full | Global Economic Prospects, June 2011 |
| title_fullStr | Global Economic Prospects, June 2011 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global Economic Prospects, June 2011 |
| title_short | Global Economic Prospects, June 2011 |
| title_sort | global economic prospects june 2011 |
| topic | absolute value acceleration of inflation adjustment costs adverse effects aggregate demand asset price asset values balance sheet balance sheets bank loan bank loans banking sector basis points bond Bond issuance bond markets Bonds business investment capacity constraints capital adequacy capital inflows capital investments capital markets capital outflows central banks Commodities commodity commodity price Commodity Prices competitiveness consumer demand consumer price index consumer spending consumption basket Copyright Clearance Copyright Clearance Center core inflation corporate bond cost of capital credibility Current account Current account balance current account balances current account imbalances current account surpluses debt debt financing depreciation developing countries Developing country developing economies developingcountry dollar value domestic credit domestic demand domestic demand growth domestic inflation domestic markets domestic prices drag on growth economic developments economic disruption emerging economies emerging market emerging markets energy exports equilibrium price equity flows exchange rate Exchange rate appreciation exchange rate flexibility export value Interest Rates export volumes exporters exposures financial crisis Financial flows financial markets financial sector financing arrangements fiscal consolidation fiscal deficit fiscal deficits fiscal policies fiscal policy flexible exchange rate flexible exchange rate regimes food price food prices food production foreign capital foreign currency foreign currency debt foreign direct investment future prices global demand Global Economy Global imbalances global inflation global output government bond government budget government deficits gross debt growth rate growth rates high-income countries import import growth imports income income growth incomes inflation measures inflation rate inflation rates inflation targets inflationary expectations inflationary pressures infrastructure projects institutional investors interest rate interest rates International capital International capital flows international markets international price International prices international reserve International Trade investment goods investment spending labor market labor markets local currency long-run equilibrium long-term interest rates Macroeconomic policy market conditions market developments market pressures market price market prices middle-income countries monetary authority monetary policy mortgage narrow band natural disaster nominal interest rates oil commodities oil demand oil exporters oil exporting countries oil importers oil markets oil price oil prices oil supply output output gap output gaps outturns political turmoil pollution portfolio power parities power parity price hikes price increase price increases price indexes price indices price of oil private capital private capital flows private inflows purchasing power purchasing power parities purchasing power parity rapid expansion rate of growth real effective exchange rate recession Regional growth regulatory conditions remittance remittances reserve accumulation rise in inflation risk premium sales growth savings short-term debt shortfall shortfalls slowdown sovereign debt spare capacity strong capital inflows Strong demand supply conditions supply disruptions supply shocks tax technological change trade impacts transition countries Treasury uncertainty unemployment rate upward pressure upward pressures value index volatility weights world prices World Trade |
| url | https://hdl.handle.net/10986/12103 |
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