Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2022
A sharp global growth slowdown and concerns about an impending global recession are weighing on commodity prices. Some energy prices remain elevated, however, amid geopolitical tensions and persistent supply disruptions. Brent crude oil prices are forecast to average $92/bbl in 2023 and ease to $80/...
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| Format: | Online |
| Language: | en_US |
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Washington, DC : World Bank
2022
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| Online Access: | https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/099733104242521908 https://hdl.handle.net/10986/38160 |
| _version_ | 1866367012215717888 |
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| author | World Bank Group |
| author_facet | World Bank Group |
| author_sort | World Bank Group |
| collection | Publicaciones institucionales emblemáticas |
| description | A sharp global growth slowdown and concerns about an impending global recession are weighing on commodity prices. Some energy prices remain elevated, however, amid geopolitical tensions and persistent supply disruptions. Brent crude oil prices are forecast to average $92/bbl in 2023 and ease to $80/bbl in 2024. Agricultural and metal prices are projected to decline 5 and 15 percent, respectively, in 2023 before stabilizing in 2024. The outlook is subject to multiple risks in a highly uncertain environment. They include worsening global growth prospects, including the pace of recovery in China; macroeconomic uncertainties; a prolonged and deeper conflict in Ukraine; and, in the case of food commodities, the ongoing La Niña weather pattern along with trade policies. A Special Focus section investigates the drivers of aluminum and copper prices. It finds that the price rebound after the pandemic was mainly driven by the economic recovery, but supply factors also contributed about one-quarter to the rebound. Since March 2022, a steep global growth slowdown, an unwinding of supply constraints, and concerns about an imminent global recession contributed to the plunge in metal prices. It concludes that for metal exporters, the energy transition may bring windfalls, but it could also increase their exposure to price volatility. |
| format | Online Serial |
| id | wb-10986-38160 |
| institution | Banco Mundial |
| language | en_US |
| publishDate | 2022 |
| publisher | Washington, DC : World Bank |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | wb-10986-381602025-05-22T02:26:12Z Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2022 Pandemic, War, Recession : Drivers of Aluminum and Copper Prices World Bank Group COMMODITY PRICES ENERGY PRICES OIL AND GAS OPEC OPEC+ AGRICULTURE PRICES METAL PRICES WAR IN UKRAINE RECESSION PANDEMIC A sharp global growth slowdown and concerns about an impending global recession are weighing on commodity prices. Some energy prices remain elevated, however, amid geopolitical tensions and persistent supply disruptions. Brent crude oil prices are forecast to average $92/bbl in 2023 and ease to $80/bbl in 2024. Agricultural and metal prices are projected to decline 5 and 15 percent, respectively, in 2023 before stabilizing in 2024. The outlook is subject to multiple risks in a highly uncertain environment. They include worsening global growth prospects, including the pace of recovery in China; macroeconomic uncertainties; a prolonged and deeper conflict in Ukraine; and, in the case of food commodities, the ongoing La Niña weather pattern along with trade policies. A Special Focus section investigates the drivers of aluminum and copper prices. It finds that the price rebound after the pandemic was mainly driven by the economic recovery, but supply factors also contributed about one-quarter to the rebound. Since March 2022, a steep global growth slowdown, an unwinding of supply constraints, and concerns about an imminent global recession contributed to the plunge in metal prices. It concludes that for metal exporters, the energy transition may bring windfalls, but it could also increase their exposure to price volatility. 2022-10-16T15:39:01Z 2022-10-16T15:39:01Z 2022-10-26 Serial Sériel Serial https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/099733104242521908 https://hdl.handle.net/10986/38160 10.1596/38160 en_US CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank application/pdf application/pdf application/pdf application/octet-stream Washington, DC : World Bank |
| spellingShingle | COMMODITY PRICES ENERGY PRICES OIL AND GAS OPEC OPEC+ AGRICULTURE PRICES METAL PRICES WAR IN UKRAINE RECESSION PANDEMIC World Bank Group Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2022 |
| title | Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2022 |
| title_full | Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2022 |
| title_fullStr | Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2022 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2022 |
| title_short | Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2022 |
| title_sort | commodity markets outlook october 2022 |
| topic | COMMODITY PRICES ENERGY PRICES OIL AND GAS OPEC OPEC+ AGRICULTURE PRICES METAL PRICES WAR IN UKRAINE RECESSION PANDEMIC |
| url | https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/099733104242521908 https://hdl.handle.net/10986/38160 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT worldbankgroup commoditymarketsoutlookoctober2022 AT worldbankgroup pandemicwarrecessiondriversofaluminumandcopperprices |