Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2025
Commodity prices are expected to decline by about 7 percent overall this year, reflecting subdued global economic activity, elevated trade tensions and policy uncertainty, ample global supply of oil, and weather-related supply shocks. In 2026, commodity prices are forecast to fall by a further 7 per...
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| Format: | Online |
| Language: | en_US |
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Washington, DC: World Bank
2025
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| Online Access: | https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/d08d3ee8-e38a-4f02-8ade-95b9c6075c0b https://hdl.handle.net/10986/43864 |
| _version_ | 1866367017939894272 |
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| author | World Bank |
| author_facet | World Bank |
| author_sort | World Bank |
| collection | Publicaciones institucionales emblemáticas |
| description | Commodity prices are expected to decline by about 7 percent overall this year, reflecting subdued global economic activity, elevated trade tensions and policy uncertainty, ample global supply of oil, and weather-related supply shocks. In 2026, commodity prices are forecast to fall by a further 7 percent, a fourth consecutive year of decline, as global growth remains sluggish and the oil market oversupplied. Energy price movements are envisaged to continue contributing to global disinflation in 2026. Metals and minerals prices are expected to remain stable in 2026, while agricultural prices are projected to edge down, primarily due to strong supply conditions. Precious metals prices are expected to rise another 5 percent, after a historically large, investment-driven rally of about 40 percent in 2025. Risks to the commodity price projections are tilted to the downside. Key downside risks include weaker-than-expected global growth, a longer-than-assumed period of economic policy uncertainty, and additional oversupply of oil. Upside risks include intensifying geopolitical tensions, the market impact of additional oil sanctions, supply reductions stemming from additional trade restrictions, unfavorable weather conditions, faster-than-expected rollout of new data centers. Commodity price volatility in recent years has revived interest in supply management via international commodity agreements. Historical experience, however, shows that the most effective policy is to promote diversification, innovation, transparency, and market-based pricing—measures that build lasting resilience to commodity price volatility. |
| format | Online Report |
| id | wb-10986-43864 |
| institution | Banco Mundial |
| language | en_US |
| publishDate | 2025 |
| publisher | Washington, DC: World Bank |
| record_format | dspace |
| spelling | wb-10986-438642025-12-18T18:38:35Z Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2025 World Bank ENERGY AGRICULTURE FERTILIZERS METALS AND MINERALS Commodity prices are expected to decline by about 7 percent overall this year, reflecting subdued global economic activity, elevated trade tensions and policy uncertainty, ample global supply of oil, and weather-related supply shocks. In 2026, commodity prices are forecast to fall by a further 7 percent, a fourth consecutive year of decline, as global growth remains sluggish and the oil market oversupplied. Energy price movements are envisaged to continue contributing to global disinflation in 2026. Metals and minerals prices are expected to remain stable in 2026, while agricultural prices are projected to edge down, primarily due to strong supply conditions. Precious metals prices are expected to rise another 5 percent, after a historically large, investment-driven rally of about 40 percent in 2025. Risks to the commodity price projections are tilted to the downside. Key downside risks include weaker-than-expected global growth, a longer-than-assumed period of economic policy uncertainty, and additional oversupply of oil. Upside risks include intensifying geopolitical tensions, the market impact of additional oil sanctions, supply reductions stemming from additional trade restrictions, unfavorable weather conditions, faster-than-expected rollout of new data centers. Commodity price volatility in recent years has revived interest in supply management via international commodity agreements. Historical experience, however, shows that the most effective policy is to promote diversification, innovation, transparency, and market-based pricing—measures that build lasting resilience to commodity price volatility. 2025-10-29 2025-10-29 Report https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/d08d3ee8-e38a-4f02-8ade-95b9c6075c0b https://hdl.handle.net/10986/43864 10.1596/43864 d08d3ee8-e38a-4f02-8ade-95b9c6075c0b en_US CC BY 3.0 IGO http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo World Bank, Washington DC application/pdf application/pdf application/octet-stream application/pdf Washington, DC: World Bank |
| spellingShingle | ENERGY AGRICULTURE FERTILIZERS METALS AND MINERALS World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2025 |
| title | Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2025 |
| title_full | Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2025 |
| title_fullStr | Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2025 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2025 |
| title_short | Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2025 |
| title_sort | commodity markets outlook october 2025 |
| topic | ENERGY AGRICULTURE FERTILIZERS METALS AND MINERALS |
| url | https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/d08d3ee8-e38a-4f02-8ade-95b9c6075c0b https://hdl.handle.net/10986/43864 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT worldbank commoditymarketsoutlookoctober2025 |